In a recent publication in the Globe and Mail, Scotia Capital’s portfolio strategist Vincent Delisle stated that Canada represents 3.7% of the MSCI World Index (source: Globe and Mail Tuesday, September 8, 2009 02:10 PM, “Buy Canada, says Scotia”).

While Canada is undoubtedly a great place to invest, to achieve broad portfolio diversification it is generally recommended to have exposure in both the US and internationally. However, when we invest outside of Canada we face what is known as “exchange rate risk”. Specifically this is the currency exchange rate between Canada and other countries. In my opinion, it’s an important consideration for your portfolio. Continue reading »

I am pleased to announce the opening of a new office located at 344 Front Street in downtown Belleville.

This office is being shared with my colleague, Mr. Garry Quinn, PFPC, Financial Planner who is also an Armstrong and Quaile advisor. Garry and I continue to operate as separate entities and he has no access to any of your client information.

This office is open by appointment only. There are two buildings that make up McNabb Towers. The office is located in the lower level of the McNabb Tower that is furthest off the road. There is free parking in the area designated between the two buildings.

There is no change of email address or phone numbers.

Click here for a photo

Over the past year I have spent time reviewing the history of the markets. While it does not predict the future, there are some interesting observations that you may be unaware of which could make a significant impact on how you view the markets and how you invest going forward.

Over the longer term (75 to 100 years) markets go up. However, most investors do not invest over that time-frame. Generally, an investor’s long-term time horizon is in the neighbourhood of 20 or so years and would be defined as an intermediate timeframe. The trends for “secular” markets generally last longer than market or business cycles. During these intermediate timeframes, markets are either in “secular bulls” (going up) or “secular bears” (going sideways or down). Below I have labelled the “secular bear” markets for the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1898.

  Continue reading »

This is the question on everyone’s mind. Unfortunately no one knows for sure!

Leading economic indicators change before the economy changes

You may have noticed that the equity markets have risen of late even though the economic news continues to be bad. Company earnings are down but in many cases are beating expectations and their stock price rises. Stock market returns are a leading indicator, as the stock market usually begins to decline before the economy declines and improve before the economy begins to pull out of a recession. Leading economic indicators are important because they help predict what the economy will be like in the future. Continue reading »

Click on this link for rates as of march-12-2009

The chaos occurring in the world’s financial markets over the last year has had a serious impact on pension plan funding and will negatively impact corporate earnings in 2009, according to the latest estimates by Mercer. Read the press release.

Many times I am asked about how the markets are doing. Here is a quick overview of the…

EQUITY MARKETS

In Canada, the S&P/TSX represents the broad Canadian Market.

Click here to view the S&P/TSX

In the United States, the S&P500 represent the 500 largest US companies based upon market capitalization.

Click here to view the S&P500

The international (equities outside of North America) market is best represented by

the EAFE (Europe, Austrail and Far East) index is used.

Click here to view the EAFE Index

You will notice two lines on each chart.

The blue line represents the 50-day simple moving average.This is a common short-term indicator.

The red line represents the 200-day simple moving average. This is a common long-term indicator.